Kinked Experience Curve
نویسنده
چکیده
How much productivity improvement or cost reduction would be possible when the number of semiconductor chips fabricated increased from one million to two million? How many more wind farms or photovoltaic farms needed to be installed before their unit cost of producing electricity can become parity with unit cost from the fossil power plant? Can the child mortality rate in the world be reduced by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015? Or, can the prevalence rate from tuberculosis be reduced by 50% between 1990 and 2015? Can experience curve (EC) models provide answers to these questions? We present an extended EC approach known as kinked EC models which are capable of predicting the long-term future performance measures such as accident rate, mortality rate, energy efficiency index, etc. in the context of large learning systems such as nation, region, or even the world.
منابع مشابه
Forecasting road fatalities by the use of kinked experience curve
According to the World Health Organization, more than one million road traffic deaths occur every year throughout the world. In order to cope with this challenge, many countries have established quantified road safety targets backed up with comprehensive safety strategies. Road safety targets need to be based on reliable forecasting methods. Following the pioneering work by Elvik (2010), this p...
متن کاملThe Kinked Demand Model and the Stability of Cooperation
This paper revisits a particular behaviour for rms competing in imperfect competitive markets, underlying the well known model of kinked demand curve. We show that under some symmetry and regularity conditions, this asymmetric behaviour of rms sustains monopoly pricing, and possesses therefore some "rationality" interpretation. We also show that such a behaviour can be generalized and interpr...
متن کاملConstruction of kinked heteronanorods modified by metal nanoparticles with enhanced catalytic performance.
Unique kinked semiconductor-metal Au-Ag2S-ZnS and Au-Ag2S-ZnS-Au heteronanorods have been synthesized for the first time by a seed-mediated growth method. A plausible mechanism for the formation of kinked heteronanorods is proposed. The catalytic activity of such novel kinked semiconductor-metal heteronanorods with selective deposition and uniform morphology is also investigated via a model rea...
متن کاملTaper-free and kinked germanium nanowires grown on silicon via purging and the two-temperature process.
We investigate the growth procedures for achieving taper-free and kinked germanium nanowires epitaxially grown on silicon substrates by chemical vapor deposition. Singly and multiply kinked germanium nanowires consisting of <111> segments were formed by employing a reactant gas purging process. Unlike non-epitaxial kinked nanowires, a two-temperature process is necessary to maintain the taper-f...
متن کامل